Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 201.380455 241.197018 289.348252 352.671209 434.971457 540.055127 6.872840e+02
2025-08-31 148.650598 193.140871 253.163995 342.571154 476.985065 679.814580 1.026933e+03
2025-09-07 129.735013 179.367568 252.308255 372.659826 577.981877 939.767318 1.697679e+03
2025-09-14 111.486847 161.053516 238.524986 376.518615 636.444422 1157.316226 2.466108e+03
2025-09-21 99.760145 149.620541 231.829149 388.638423 712.498865 1448.594663 3.690534e+03
2025-09-28 88.495896 136.618413 219.341704 386.030741 757.602678 1699.815694 5.137297e+03
2025-10-05 84.351169 134.607973 225.287554 420.341780 898.017690 2293.799403 8.869577e+03
2025-10-12 79.915776 131.234348 227.838168 448.187349 1037.197247 3016.299553 1.536420e+04
2025-10-19 75.286678 126.716469 227.166421 468.572734 1168.072403 3860.597626 2.671431e+04
2025-10-26 70.561764 121.291290 223.578042 480.972853 1283.502223 4802.177860 4.656168e+04
2025-11-02 65.725649 114.979803 216.986214 483.987317 1371.911474 5763.251753 8.010021e+04
2025-11-09 60.537154 107.327817 206.240543 473.194183 1407.689823 6516.003963 1.277093e+05
2025-11-16 55.600398 99.838215 195.210693 460.371603 1436.961355 7355.848886 2.168569e+05
2025-11-23 51.200792 92.994059 184.708119 446.706486 1458.365603 8234.761118 3.858426e+05
2025-11-30 50.469519 93.763924 192.197026 489.313325 1755.811697 12357.393235 2.382910e+06
2025-12-07 47.809139 90.050874 188.197259 494.809669 1887.812594 15500.646266 1.483924e+07
2025-12-14 45.946374 87.879404 187.711853 512.059292 2099.948545 20943.967807 3.365815e+09
2025-12-21 43.347808 83.776377 181.641972 508.344227 2194.898306 25388.446254 NaN
2025-12-28 43.027368 84.837154 189.361064 557.439618 2673.974370 43088.151199 NaN
2026-01-04 42.271873 84.789843 194.091414 597.603411 3160.143921 72135.352680 NaN
2026-01-11 41.158317 83.759545 195.903768 627.181839 3621.710923 118143.066116 NaN
2026-01-18 39.760345 81.887540 194.993037 645.244475 4024.790948 187156.082680 NaN
2026-01-25 38.094480 79.189319 191.238053 649.643437 4315.733854 277891.842716 NaN